Pourrez-vous semer aussi tôt cette année que l’an dernier? Selon des prévisions météorologiques préliminaires, il semble que non.
Dans l’est du Canada, cette année le sol sera plus frais qu’à la normale au printemps, tout en étant bien irrigué. C’est ce que prédit David Phillips, climatologue principal à Environnement Canada, dans un texte publié par Financement agricole Canada.
« Il est improbable que les producteurs puissent se rendre aux champs aussi tôt que l’année dernière, soutient David Phillips. Ils sèmeront donc plus tard et la croissance sera plus lente parce que la température du sol ne sera pas aussi chaude. À mon avis, les semailles n’auront pas lieu en avril, mais peut-être bien en mai. »
Au cours de l’été, nous devrions connaître des conditions normales. Après un départ lent, nos cultures connaîtront un été normal ou plus chaud que la normale, toujours selon David Phillips.
Du simple point de vue des probabilités, il est à peu près impossible que nous connaissions une saison de croissance aussi exceptionnelle qu’en 2010. Les agriculteurs avaient alors pu semer tôt, pour ensuite bénéficier de chaleur supérieure à la normale, le tout arrosé de pluies aux bons moments.
Aux États-Unis, la communauté agricole se prépare à anticiper une météo plus « extrême » au cours des prochaines années. Selon ce que rapporte AgWeb, la sécheresse et les vagues de chaleur extrême reviendront de plus en plus souvent.
Que l’on croit au réchauffement planétaire ou non, il s’avère qu’au cours des 50 dernières années, les températures moyennes aient cru de plus d’un degré C. Habitué à environ 60 jours à plus de 32 degrés C, le sud des États-Unis pourrait bientôt en connaître jusqu’à 150 par année.
La chaleur plus intense s’accompagnera de périodes de sécheresse plus fréquentes et d’orages avec de très fortes précipitations.
D’après des données du U.S. Global Change Research Program, il tombe maintenant 5 % plus de pluie aux États-Unis qu’il y a 50 ans, principalement à cause d’épisodes de précipitations intenses.
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