Le prix du blé a beau avoir bondi de 40 % en un an, ce n’est qu’en Amérique du Nord que la production cette céréale augmentera le plus en 2011.
La Commission canadienne du blé (CCB) prédit une production mondiale de 649,5 millions de tonnes en 2011, une hausse d’à peine 0,6 % par rapport à l’année qui vient de se terminer.
Au Canada, la production de blé devrait croître de 2,9 % en 2011, pour s’établir à 23,8 millions de tonnes.
Dans un article sur AgWeb, l’analyste de la CCB Neil Townsend prédit que les superficies de blé dans l’Ouest canadien passeront de 20 à 21 millions d’acres. À long terme, par contre, il craint que le canola reprenne du terrain.
Aux États-Unis, le USDA prévoit que les superficies ensemencées en blé augmenteront de 10 % cette année, atteingnant 41 millions d’acres.
Dans un document présentant les perspectives pour l’année qui débute, la CCB explique qu’en dépit des prix élevés, la production mondiale de blé en 2011 sera minée par la sécheresse en Russie et de possibles inondations au Canada. Le blé devra aussi s’incliner face à d’autres cultures, dont les prix sont aussi très élevés en ce moment.
La CCB estime que pour 2010-2011, les producteurs canadiens toucheront environ 50 % de plus pour leur blé de printemps, soit 265 $ la tonne pour la meilleure qualité.
Selon le dernier rapport du USDA, les stocks mondiaux de blé sont à la baisse, mais ils sont encore loin des niveaux critiques de 2007-2008.
Toutefois, les conditions humides des récoltes canadiennes et australiennes ont grandement affecté la qualité du blé disponible sur le marché. Malgré des stocks à des niveaux convenables, une part inhabituelle du blé ira à la consommation animale. Les réserves de blé adéquat pour la consommation humaine sont très basses.
En Australie, des inondations d’une ampleur jamais vue continuent de frapper l’est du pays. Cela fait déjà deux mois que Dame Nature fait des siennes, causant d’importants dommages aux récoltes du quatrième pays exportateur de blé (après les États-Unis, le Canada et la Russie).
Le blé qui n’a pas encore été récolté devrait être de qualité inférieure, de sorte qu’en Australie, le prix du blé de consommation humaine pour livraison en mars prochain est actuellement le plus cher au monde, à 321 $CAD la tonne.
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